The Economic Effects of the 2017 Tax Revision: Preliminary Observations

Source: Jane G. Gravelle, Donald J. Marples, Congressional Research Service, CRS Report, R45736, May 22, 2019

The 2017 tax revision, P.L. 115-97, often referred to as the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, and referred to subsequently as the Act, was estimated to reduce taxes by $1.5 trillion over 10 years. The Act permanently reduced the corporate tax rate to 21%, made a number of revisions in business tax deductions (including limits on interest deductions), and provided a major revision in the international tax rules. It also substantially revised individual income taxes, including an increase in the standard deduction and child credit largely offset by eliminating personal exemptions, along with rate cuts, limits on itemized deductions (primarily a dollar cap on the state and local tax deduction), and a 20% deduction for pass-through businesses (businesses taxed under the individual rather than the corporate tax, such as partnerships). These individual provisions are temporary and are scheduled to expire after 2025. The Act also adopted temporary provisions allowing the immediate deduction for equipment investment and an increase in the exemption for estate and gift taxes…..

….This analysis examines the preliminary effects of the Act during the first year, 2018. In some cases it is difficult to determine the effects of the tax cuts (e.g., on economic growth) given the other factors that affect outcomes. In other cases, such as the level of repatriation and use of repatriated funds, the evidence is more compelling. This report discusses these potential consequences in light of the data available after the first year…..

Be Careful What You Wish For: Ronald Reagan, Donald Trump, The Assault on Civil Rights, and The Surprising Story of How Title VII Got Its Private Right of Action

Source: David B. Oppenheimer, Henry Cornillie, Henry Bluestone Smith, Thao Thai, Richard Treadwell, Berkeley Journal of Employment and Labor Law, Vol. 39 No. 1, 2018, Posted: 9 May 2019

From the abstract:
This essay reviews the impact of President Ronald Reagan’s policies on civil rights enforcement in the 1980s, as he tried to turn back the clock on civil rights. Reagan devastated the civil rights enforcement agencies, as he pandered to the white nationalists who helped him win election. But Reagan’s attempts ultimately failed, and leave behind an important lesson for President Donald Trump. Reagan’s appointments to and policies at the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission (EEOC), the Department of Justice’s Civil Rights Division, and the Department of Labor’s Office of Federal Contract Compliance Programs (OFCCP) seriously damaged civil rights enforcement. But employment discrimination law has survived and continues to be an often-effective tool against racism, misogyny, homophobia, religious hatred, and other forms of discrimination. Title VII cases (and claims under parallel statutes) continue to be a major part of the caseload in federal courts. Why? Because the Civil Rights Act is largely enforced by private civil rights groups and lawyers in private practice who bring cases before independent judges pursuant to a private right of action.

Did a progressive Congress have the foresight to recognize that a private right of action would protect the victims of discrimination from future administrations hostile to civil rights, and thus include it in the statute as a check against enforcement agencies captured by civil rights opponents? Hardly. Rather, moderate and conservative Senate Republicans, resigned to the fact that an employment discrimination law was inevitable, and fearful of a powerful federal agency that would restrict business autonomy in the manner of the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB), substituted a private right of action for agency adjudication in an attempt to sabotage the effectiveness of Title VII. In 1964, the adoption of a private right of action was widely seen as a great loss for civil rights advocates, turning Title VII from an enforceable law to an ineffectual call for voluntary compliance with anti-discrimination policies. Almost no one foresaw the development of a private bar of plaintiffs’ employment discrimination lawyers.

Those who tried to sabotage the enforcement of civil rights through a private right of action should be turning in their graves, having inadvertently given civil rights advocates a powerful tool to resist assaults on civil rights.

Gender Differences in Politician Persistence

Source: Melanie Wasserman, University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) – Anderson School of Management, November 2018, Posted: May 9, 2019

From the abstract:
Why are women underrepresented in politics? This paper documents gender differences in the career paths of novice politicians by studying the persistence of candidates after they win or lose elections. I track the political trajectories of over 11,000 candidates in local California elections and use a regression discontinuity approach. Losing an election causes 50 percent more attrition among female than male candidates: an electoral loss causes men to be 16 percentage points less likely to run again within the next four years, whereas the drop for women is 25 percentage points. Yet the gender gap in persistence depends on the setting: I find no evidence of a gap among candidates for high female representation offices or among more experienced candidates. These results are inconsistent with behavioral explanations of women’s differential attrition. Instead, the results suggest that in low information environments, voters may penalize novice female politicians, which deters women from running again. I discuss the implications of the results for the gender gap in officeholding.

Pensionomics 2018: Measuring the Economic Impact of Multiemployer DB Pension Expenditures

Source: Diane Oakley, Ilana Boivie, National Institute on Retirement Security, Issue Brief, January 2019

From the abstract:
This study analyzes data on specific private sector pension plans (referred to as “multiemployer plans”) to assess the overall national economic impact of benefits paid by these plans to retirees.

We estimate the employment, output, value added, and tax impacts of pension benefit expenditures from multiemployer plans at the national level, and find that the economic gains attributable to private sector multiemployer DB pension expenditures are considerable.

In 2016, $41.8 billion in pension benefits were paid to 3.5 million retired Americans covered by multiemployer plans. The average benefit paid to retirees covered by these plans was $11,935 per year. Expenditures made out of those pension payments collectively supported:

– Nearly 543,000 American jobs that paid nearly $28 billion in labor income
– $89 billion in total economic output nationwide;
– $50 billion in value added (GDP); and
– $14.7 billion in federal, state, and local tax revenue.

The largest employment impacts occurred in the real estate, food services, health care, and retail trade sectors.

Safety climate, hearing climate and hearing protection device use among transportation road maintainers

Source: Jennifer M. Cavallari, Katrina A. Burch, Jeffrey Hanrahan, Jennifer L. Garza, Alicia G. Dugan, American Journal of Industrial Medicine, Early View, First published: May 19, 2019
(subscription required)

From the abstract:
Background:
It is important to understand workplace factors including safety climate that influence hearing protection device (HPD) use. We sought to investigate the association between HPD use, safety climate, and hearing climate, a new measure specific to hearing.

Methods:
A survey was developed and distributed among transportation “maintainers” who perform road maintenance and repair. A new hearing climate measure was designed by adapting a safety climate measure. HPD use was assessed by asking workers how often they wear HPD while in noise. The differences in safety climate and hearing climate were compared by the frequency of HPD use using analysis of variance.

Results:
Among 166 maintainers, 54% reported always or almost always wearing HPD while noise exposed. High‐frequency HPD users reported a statistically significant higher safety climate (P = 0.004) and hearing climate (P = 0.003).

Conclusions:
Hearing climate predicts the frequency of HPD use and may be a useful measure when assessing and improving hearing conservation programs.

Unmet Need for Workplace Accommodation

Source: Nicole Maestas, Kathleen J. Mullen, Stephanie Rennane, Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, Early View, First published: May 16, 2019
(subscription required)

From the abstract:
We use experimental survey methods in a nationally representative survey to test alternative ways of identifying (1) individuals in the population who would be better able to work if they received workplace accommodation for a health condition; (2) the rate at which these individuals receive workplace accommodation; and (3) the rate at which accommodated workers are still working four years later, compared to similar workers who were not accommodated. We find that question order in disability surveys matters. We present suggestive evidence of priming effects that lead people to understate accommodation when first asked about very severe disabilities. We also find a sizeable fraction of workers who report they receive a workplace accommodation for a health problem but do not report work limitations per se. Our preferred estimate of the size of the accommodation‐sensitive population is 22.8 percent of all working‐age adults. We find that 47 to 58 percent of accommodation‐sensitive individuals lack accommodation and would benefit from some kind of employer accommodation to either sustain or commence work. Finally, among accommodation‐sensitive individuals, workers who were accommodated for a health problem in 2014 were 13.2 percentage points more likely to work in 2018 than those who were not accommodated in 2014.

Most states have the financial flexibility and reserves to manage a recession

Source: Emily Raimes, Timothy Blake, Daniel Ortega, Nicholas Samuels, Moody’s, Sector In-Depth, State government – US, May 20, 2019
(subscription required)

Economic conditions in the US are strong, and the probability of a recession beginning within the next year appears to be low. States are aware that a downturn will come eventually, however, and are building reserves to prepare. According to our scenario analysis, most states will be able to weather a moderate recession without significant adverse credit impact, in large part because of healthy reserves and inherently strong fiscal flexibility. Recession preparedness is stronger for 22 states, moderate for 26 and weaker for two…..

Oregon: Legislation increases school funding via new corporate tax, credit positive for state and school districts

Source: Patrick Liberatore, Baye Larsen, Eva Bogaty, Nicholas Samuels, Emily Raimes, Timothy Blake, Leonard Jones, Moody’s, Sector Comment, State government and public K-12 schools districts, May 23, 2019
(subscription required)

On May 16, Oregon Governor Kate Brown signed legislation that increases preK-12 education spending by a projected $1.2 billion for the state’s 2019-21 biennium starting July 1, 2019. Growth in state support is credit positive for Oregon school districts because it will increase resources as education costs continue to rise. The added funding comes from a dedicated state corporate activity tax established by the legislation. Besides generating more school funding, the tax is credit positive for the state because it will diversify its revenue sources, which are heavily reliant on volatile personal income taxes….

California: Revised budget increases funding for school districts and community colleges, a credit positive

Source: Helen Cregger, Eric Hoffmann, Leonard Jones, Moody’s, Sector Comment, Public K-12 school districts and community colleges, May 22, 2019
(subscription required)

On May 9, California Governor Gavin Newsom released a revised version of the state’s fiscal 2020 budget, which includes a substantial increase in minimum funding levels for K-12 public schools and community college districts, a credit positive. The new budget also benefits K-12 schools with the state agreeing to kick in added funds to help school districts with pension payments to the California State Teachers’ Retirement System….

Women’s Rights: Primary Sources and Teaching Activities

Source: National Archives, DocsTeach, 2019

Women’s Rights and Roles in American History

When our Constitution was written, it was silent on women. Excluded from most of the rights and privileges of citizenship, women operated in limited and rigid roles while enslaved women were excluded from all. Yet women have actively participated as citizens—organizing, marching, petitioning—since the founding of our country. Sometimes quietly, and sometimes with a roar, women’s roles have been redefined. Use this page to find primary sources and document-based teaching activities related to women’s rights and changing roles in American history. Many of the documents, photographs, and other sources are also featured in the exhibits Rightfully Hers: American Women and the Vote, at the National Archives Museum in Washington, DC, and One Half of the People: Advancing Equality for Women, traveling the country.

Related:
Shall Not Be Denied: Women Fight for the Vote
Source: Library of Congress, 2019

This exhibition will tell the story of the long campaign for women’s suffrage – considered the largest reform movement in American history – which lasted more than seven decades. The struggle was not for the fainthearted. For years, determined women organized, lobbied, paraded, petitioned, lectured, picketed, and faced imprisonment.

The exhibition draws from the Library’s extensive collection of personal papers of such figures as Susan B. Anthony, Elizabeth Cady Stanton, Lucy Stone, Mary Church Terrell, Harriot Stanton Blatch, Nannie Helen Burroughs, and Carrie Chapman Catt, as well as the organizational records of the National Woman’s Party and the National American Woman Suffrage Association, among others. Documents, images, video and audio recordings trace the movement leading to the women’s rights convention at Seneca Falls, New York, in 1848, through the contributions of suffragists who worked to persuade women that they deserved the same rights as men, the divergent political strategies and internal divisions they overcame, the push for a federal women’s suffrage amendment and the legacy of this movement.

Related Links

  • Votes for Women: Selected Images from the Library of Congress, Prints and Photographs Division
  • Web Guide: Nineteenth Amendment, Researcher and Reference Services
  • Digital Collections

  • Susan B. Anthony Papers
  • Carrie Chapman Catt Papers
  • Elizabeth Cady Stanton Papers
  • Mary Church Terrell Papers
  • National American Woman Suffrage Association Papers
  • Women of Protest: Photographs from the Records of the National Woman’s Party
  • Suffrage Sheet Music
  • For Teachers

  • Primary Source Set: Women’s Suffrage
  • Suffrage Strategies: Voices for Votes
  • Votes for Women: Selections from the National American Woman Suffrage Association Collection 1848-1921
  • Votes for Women: Suffrage Pictures
  • Women Have Had The Right To Vote For 100 Years. Here’s How To Celebrate
    Source: Mikaela Lefrak, WAMU, May 16, 2019

    The history of women’s suffrage and the landscape of Washington, D.C. are inextricably tied. It took decades of women organizing near the Capitol, picketing outside the White House, lobbying Congress and marching on the National Mall to win the right to vote. This June 4 marks the 100-year anniversary of Congress’ passage of the 19th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, which prohibits the government from denying the right to vote on the basis of sex. Museums and institutions around the District are marking the centennial with exhibitions on the movement’s history and leaders. Here are five of our top picks for places to learn about key women suffragists, the movement’s strategic wins and moral failings and how the fight for voting rights continues today.

    1. Untold Stories: The National Portrait Gallery …..
    2. Primary Sources: The National Archives …..
    3. The Room Where It Happened: Belmont-Paul Women’s Equality National Monument …..
    4. Personal Papers Galore: The Library of Congress …..
    5: Tables And Wagons: The National Museum of American History …..
    …..