State-by-State Effects of a Ruling for the Challengers in King v. Burwell

Source: Kaiser Family Foundation, June 2015

The Supreme Court is expected to issue a ruling by the end of June in King v. Burwell, a case challenging the legality of health insurance subsidies provided to low- and middle-income people in the 34 states where the federal government is operating the insurance Marketplace under the Affordable Care Act. The map and table below show for each state:
• The number of people receiving premium subsidies as of March 31, 2015, who would lose them if the Court finds for the challengers.
• The total amount of federal subsidy dollars.
• The average subsidy (or average premium tax credit) that subsidized enrollees have qualified for.
• The average increase in premiums that subsidized enrollees would face if the subsidies are disallowed.

Estimates do not reflect the substantial premium increases that would likely result in 2016 and beyond if subsidies are eliminated, triggering healthy enrollees to drop coverage and a deterioration in the insurance risk pool.