The Trend is the Cycle: Job Polarization and Jobless Recoveries

Source: Nir Jaimovich, Henry E. Siu, National Bureau of Economic Research, NBER Working Paper No. 18334, August 2012
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From the abstract:
Job polarization refers to the recent disappearance of employment in occupations in the middle of the skill distribution. Jobless recoveries refers to the slow rebound in aggregate employment following recent recessions, despite recoveries in aggregate output. We show how these two phenomena are related. First, job polarization is not a gradual process; essentially all of the job loss in middle-skill occupations occurs in economic downturns. Second, jobless recoveries in the aggregate are accounted for by jobless recoveries in the middle-skill occupations that are disappearing.

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