Nine Out of Ten Non-Elderly Californians Will Be Insured When the Affordable Care Act is Fully Implemented

Source: Ken Jacobs, Greg Watson, Gerald F. Kominski, Dylan H. Roby, Dave Graham-Squire, Christina M. Kinane, Daphna Gans, and Jack Needleman, UC Berkeley Center for Labor Research and Education, UCLA Center for Health Policy Research, Research Brief, June 2012

From the summary:
The Affordable Care Act (ACA) will significantly expand access to affordable health coverage in California starting in 2014. Californians with the lowest incomes will have access to coverage under the expansion of Medi-Cal, while millions of low- and middle-income families will be eligible for subsidies through the California Health Benefit Exchange (the Exchange). Demand for health insurance in the state will also increase as a result of the minimum coverage requirement.

The level of enrollment in the new and expanded programs and the resulting share of Californians who gain coverage under the ACA will depend on a range of factors, including the ease of enrollment and retention, outreach strategies, and language accessibility.

Based on the results of our CalSIM model, we estimate that in 2019, after the ACA is fully implemented:
– Between 89 and 92 percent of Californians under the age of 65 will have health coverage, compared to 84 percent without the law.
– Between 1.8 and 2.1 million Californians will enroll in subsidized coverage in the California Health Benefit Exchange.
– Between 1.2 and 1.6 million individuals will be newly enrolled in Medi-Cal.
– Between 3 and just under 4 million Californians will remain uninsured, 1 million of whom will not be eligible for coverage due to immigration status.
See also:
Press release
Fact Sheets:
Predicted Exchange Enrollment with Subsidies under the Affordable Care Act: Regional and County Estimates
Predicted Increase in Medi-Cal Enrollment under the Affordable Care Act: Regional and County Estimates
Remaining Uninsured in California under the Affordable Care Act: Regional and County Estimates
Chart Pack:
Health Insurance Coverage in California under the Affordable Care Act: Revision of the March 22, 2012 Presentation to the California Health Benefit Exchange Board
Methodology

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