Key Facts about the Uninsured Population

Source: Kaiser Family Foundation, December 7, 2018

The Affordable Care Act (ACA) led to historic gains in health insurance coverage by extending Medicaid coverage to many low-income individuals and providing Marketplace subsidies for individuals below 400% of poverty. The number of uninsured nonelderly Americans decreased from over 44 million in 2013 (the year before the major coverage provisions went into effect) to just below 27 million in 2016. However, in 2017, the number of uninsured people increased by nearly 700,000 people, the first increase since implementation of the ACA. Ongoing efforts to alter the ACA or to make receipt of Medicaid contingent on work may further erode coverage gains seen under the ACA. This fact sheet describes how coverage has changed in recent years, examines the characteristics of the uninsured population, and summarizes the access and financial implications of not having coverage.

Correctional Control 2018: Incarceration and supervision by state

Source: Alexi Jones, Prison Policy Initiative, December 2018

Understanding correctional control beyond incarceration gives us a more accurate and complete picture of punishment in the United States, showing the expansive reach of our criminal justice system. This is especially true at the state level, as some of the states that are the least likely to send someone to prison are the most likely to put them under community supervision. Given that most criminal justice reform will need to happen at the state and local levels, it is crucial for states to assess not only their incarceration rates, but whether their “alternatives” to incarceration are working as intended.

For this report, we compiled data on each state’s various systems of correctional control to help advocates and policymakers prioritize targets for reform. This report includes data on federal prisons, state prisons, local jails, juvenile confinement, involuntary commitment, Indian Country jails, parole, and probation. We make the data accessible in one nationwide chart and 100 state-specific pie charts. In this update to our original 2016 report, we pay particular attention to the harms of probation and parole, and discuss how these systems might be reworked into more meaningful alternatives to incarceration.

Look West for Strongest Growth Since the Recession

Source: Barb Rosewicz & Joe Fleming, Pew Charitable Trusts, November 19, 2018

The second-longest U.S. economic expansion has played out unevenly across states. Growth has been strongest in North Dakota and a group of mostly Western states and weakest in Connecticut, as measured by the rate of change in each state’s total personal income since the start of the Great Recession. In the first half of 2018, all but a couple of states shared in widespread gains.

The national recovery has been long-running, but growth in total U.S. personal income is still off its historic pace. As of the second quarter of 2018, the combined personal income of U.S. residents rose by the equivalent of 1.9 percent a year over the 10-plus years since the recession began, compared with the equivalent of 2.3 percent over the past 20 years, after accounting for inflation.

The rates represent the constant pace at which inflation-adjusted state personal income would need to grow each year to reach the most recent level and are one way of tracking a state’s economy.

After tumbling nationwide except in West Virginia during the depths of the recession, personal income totals have recovered in all states but have grown at far different rates.

Eight states’ growth since the start of recession beat the 20-year U.S. rate as of the second quarter of 2018, and nearly all were in the West. North Dakota once again led; the sum of its residents’ personal income has increased the equivalent of 3.3 percent a year. Connecticut and four other states recorded the weakest recovery, with growth rates at or below the equivalent of 1 percent a year. None of those states are in the West.

Related:
States’ Personal Income Recovers Unevenly From Recession (PDF)
49 States’ Estimated Personal Income Grew Over Past Year (PDF)
Number of States in Which Inflation-Adjusted Personal Income Fell (PDF)

Investing in America’s Workforce: Improving Outcomes for Workers and Employers

Source: Editors: Stuart Andreason, Todd Greene, Heath Prince, Carl E. Van Horn, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, 2018

How can well-structured and effective workforce programs and policies result in better economic outcomes for individuals, businesses, and communities?

Explore contemporary research, best practices, and resources from more than 100 authors in the book Investing in America’s Workforce: Improving Outcomes for Workers and Employers.

The book is divided into three volumes: Investing in Workers, Investing in Work, and Investing in Systems for Employment Opportunity. Within each volume are discrete sections made up of chapters that identify specific workforce development programs and policies that provide positive returns to society, to employers, and to job seekers. Download the three volumes and individual chapters below.

Note: The policies and practices presented in the book are intended to spur innovative thinking that results in context-specific solutions. The perspectives are not intended as an endorsement from the Federal Reserve System or its partnering institutions.

VOLUME 1: INVESTING IN WORKERS
Front Matter and Table of Contents
Acknowledgments
Foreword: The Evolving U.S. Labor Market by Patrick T. Harker
Introduction: Investing in America’s Workforce by Stuart Andreason, Todd Greene, Heath Prince, and Carl E. Van Horn

– Building Employer Investment in Workforce Development
– Investing in Undervalued Human Capital
– Investing in Historically Black Colleges and Universities
– Investing in Workers with Different Abilities
– Investing in Workers of the Future

VOLUME 2: INVESTING IN WORK
Front Matter and Table of Contents
Introduction: Investing in Work by Prabal Chakrabarti and Jeffrey Fuhrer

– Investing in Opportunities to Create Good Jobs
– Investing in Work and Wealth
– Investing in Rural Work
– Investing in Human Capital to Support Local Economic Development

VOLUME 3: INVESTING IN SYSTEMS FOR EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITY
Front Matter and Table of Contents
Introduction: Investing in Systems for Employment Opportunity by Stuart Andreason and Alexander Ruder

– Financial Innovations in Workforce Development
– Government Investment in Workforce Development
– Investing in Technology
– Investing in Skills and Credentials
– Investing in Regional Workforce Development Systems
– Appendix: Investing in America’s Workforce

Why Aren’t U.S. Workers Working?

Source: Mary C. Daly, Joseph H. Pedtke, Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau, and Annemarie Schweinert, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, FRBSF Economic Letter 2018-24, November 13, 2018

Labor force participation among U.S. men and women ages 25 to 54 has been declining for nearly 20 years, a stark contrast with rising participation in Canada over this period. Three-fourths of the difference between the two countries can be explained by the growing gap in labor force attachment of women. A key factor is the extensive parental leave policies in Canada. If the United States could reverse the trend in participation of prime-age women to match Canada, it would see 5 million additional prime-age workers join the labor force.

Closing the Gap: The Effect of a Targeted, Tuition-Free Promise on College Choices of High-Achieving, Low-Income Students

Source: Susan Dynarski, C.J. Libassi, Katherine Michelmore, Stephanie Owen, National Bureau of Economic Research, NBER Working Paper Series, Working Paper 25349, December 2018

From the abstract:
Low-income students, even those with strong academic credentials, are unlikely to attend a highly selective college. With a field experiment, we test an intervention to increase enrollment of low-income students at the highly selective University of Michigan. We contact students (as well as their parents and principals) with an encouragement to apply and a promise of four years of free tuition and fees upon admission. Materials emphasize that this offer is not contingent on completing aid applications (e.g., the FAFSA or PROFILE). Treated students were more than twice as likely to apply to (67 percent vs. 26 percent) and enroll at (27 percent vs. 12 percent) the University of Michigan. There was no diversion from schools as (or more) selective as UM. The enrollment effect of 15 percentage points (pp) comprises students who would otherwise attend a less selective, four-year college (7 pp), a community college (4 pp), or no college (4 pp). Effects persist through two years of follow-up. The intervention closed by half the income gaps in college choice among Michigan’s high-achieving students. We conclude that an encouragement to apply, paired with a promise of aid, when communicated to students and influential adults, can substantially close income gaps in college choices.

Women in State Legislatures for 2019

Source: National Conference of State Legislatures, November 27, 2018

NOTE: This is preliminary post-election information, which is subject to change due to recounts, resignations, appointments and special elections.

Approximately 2,090 women will serve in the 50 state legislatures in 2019. Women will make up 28.3 percent of all state legislators nationwide.

This represents a significant increase from the 2018 session’s ratio of 25.3 percent, and the most women elected at one time.

Information about women in legislative leadership for 2019 coming soon.

Local Government – US: 2019 Outlook Remains Stable With Tax Revenue To Grow Modestly

Source: Sam Feldman-Crough, Gregory Max Sobel, Eva Bogaty, Naomi Richman, Leonard Jones, Alexandra S. Parker, Gail Sussman, Moody’s Investors Service, Outlook, December 5, 2018
(subscription required)

The stable outlook is underpinned by the largely steady and predictable growth in property taxes over the outlook horizon. Most cities, counties and school districts have financial flexibility from healthy fund balances to deal with unforeseen challenges. ….

Water And Sewer Utilities – US: 2019 Outlook Stable As Debt Service Coverage Strengthens But Capital Needs Rise

Source: Ryan Patton, Rachel Cortez, Naomi Richman, Alexandra S. Parker, Moody’s Investors Service, Outlook, December 5, 2018
(subscription required)

The stable outlook for the water and sewer utility sector incorporates revenue growth that will continue to strengthen debt service coverage and liquidity, and the ability to meet operating costs. ….