Category Archives: Unemployment

Regional Impacts of a Minimum Wage Hike: A Pennsylvania Case Study

Source: Shannon Brobst, Regional Financial Review, May 2018
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Eighteen U.S. states and 20 cities rang in 2018 with increases in their minimum wage, bringing back into the spotlight the debate about whether to raise the federal minimum, which has remained at $7.25 since 2009 (see Chart 1). The question of whether it should be increased receives many different answers from Republicans, Democrats, economists and non-professional observers. Some argue that increasing the cost of labor hurts the economy because it could lead to jobs cuts for low-paid workers. Raising the minimum wage increases businesses’ labor costs, and thus, the cost of producing a good or service. Higher production costs may cause employers to lay off workers in order to contain costs and remain profitable, and could cause marginally profitable small or struggling businesses to close. Others counter this argument stating that a higher minimum wage helps the economy by boosting incomes and does not materially affect employment. This paper examines the positive and negative effects of raising the minimum wage from $7.25 to $12 and $15 in Pennsylvania and discusses policy implications at the local and federal levels.

Are Reemployment Services Effective? Experimental Evidence from the Great Recession

Source: Marios Michaelides, Peter Mueser, Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, Volume 37, Issue 3, Summer 2018
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From the abstract:
We examine an experimental‐design reemployment program implemented in Nevada during the Great Recession that required Unemployment Insurance (UI) recipients to: (1) undergo an eligibility review to confirm they were qualified for benefits and actively searching for work and, if deemed eligible, (2) receive job‐counseling services. Our results show that the program expedited participant exit from UI, produced UI savings that exceeded program costs, and improved participant employment outcomes. Analyses of program effects on the UI exit likelihood show that the program’s effects are partly associated with increased participant exit up through the time when program activities were scheduled, reflecting voluntary exit of participants from UI to avoid program activities and disqualifications of participants who failed to meet eligibility requirements. In addition, the program induced substantial participant exit from UI in the period after participants fulfilled requirements and their interactions with the program had ended, suggesting that the job‐counseling services offered by the program may have helped participants to conduct more effective job searches. Our findings provide evidence that reemployment programs that combine an eligibility review with mandatory participation in job‐search services can be effective during recessions.

Great Recession, great recovery? Trends from the Current Population Survey

Source: Evan Cunningham, Monthly Labor Review, April 2018

This article uses data from the Current Population Survey to examine the state of the U.S. labor market 10 years after the start of the Great Recession of 2007–09. By December 2017, unemployment rates had returned to prerecession lows for people of all ages, genders, major race and ethnicity groups, and levels of educational attainment. However, the long-term decline in labor force participation continued during this recovery, while long-term unemployment and involuntary part-time employment remained elevated.

Minimum Wage Increases, Wages, and Low-Wage Employment: Evidence from Seattle

Source: Ekaterina Jardim, Mark C. Long, Robert Plotnick, Emma van Inwegen, Jacob Vigdor, Hilary Wething, National Bureau of Economic Research, NBER Working Paper No. 23532, Issued in June 2017, Revised in May 2018
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From the abstract:
This paper evaluates the wage, employment, and hours effects of the first and second phase-in of the Seattle Minimum Wage Ordinance, which raised the minimum wage from $9.47 to as much as $11 in 2015 and to as much as $13 in 2016. Using a variety of methods to analyze employment in all sectors paying below a specified real hourly wage rate, we conclude that the second wage increase to $13 reduced hours worked in low-wage jobs by 6-7 percent, while hourly wages in such jobs increased by 3 percent. Consequently, total payroll for such jobs decreased, implying that the Ordinance lowered the amount paid to workers in low-wage jobs by an average of $74 per month per job in 2016. Evidence attributes more modest effects to the first wage increase. We estimate an effect of zero when analyzing employment in the restaurant industry at all wage levels, comparable to many prior studies.

State Economic Monitor

Source: Urban Institute, Updated November 2017

The State and Local Finance Initiative’s State Economic Monitor tracks and analyzes economic and fiscal trends at the state level. Its interactive graphics highlight particular differences across all 50 states and the District of Columbia in employment, earnings, housing, and taxes.

Each section is updated when new data are released. Updated November 2017

Welfare Benefits and Unemployment in Affluent Democracies: The Moderating Role of the Institutional Insider/Outsider Divide

Source: Thomas Biegert, American Sociological Review, First Published August 29, 2017
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From the abstract:
The effect of generous welfare benefits on unemployment is highly contested. The dominant perspective contends that benefits provide disincentive to work, whereas others portray benefits as job-search subsidies that facilitate better job matches. Despite many studies of welfare benefits and unemployment, the literature has neglected how this relationship might vary across institutional contexts. This article investigates how unemployment benefits and minimum income benefits affect unemployment across levels of the institutional insider/outsider divide. I analyze the moderating role of the disparity in employment protection for holders of permanent and temporary contracts and of the configuration of wage bargaining. The analysis combines data from 20 European countries and the United States using the European Union Labour Force Survey and the Current Population Survey 1992–2009. I use a pseudo-panel approach, including fixed effects for sociodemographic groups within countries and interactions between benefits and institutions. The results indicate that unemployment benefits and minimum income benefits successfully subsidize job search and reduce unemployment in labor markets with a moderate institutional insider/outsider divide. However, when there is greater disparity in employment protection and when bargaining either combines low unionization with high centralization or high unionization with low centralization, generous benefits create a disincentive to work, plausibly because attractive job opportunities are scarce.

Employment trends by typical entry-level education requirement

Source: Audrey L. Watson, U.S. Department of Labor, Monthly Labor Review, September 2017

From May 2007 to May 2010, the U.S. economy lost nearly 7.4 million jobs in occupations that typically require a high school diploma or no formal educational credential for entry. In contrast, the economy had no statistically significant employment change in occupations that typically require postsecondary education for entry. During the recovery, the economy gained jobs in almost all the typical entry-level education categories. By May 2016, employment exceeded May 2007 levels for occupations that typically require no formal educational credential for entry and occupations that typically require postsecondary education. However, employment in occupations that typically require a high school diploma or the equivalent for entry remained nearly 1.3 million lower than in May 2007. This trend is projected to continue. From 2014 to 2024, occupations that typically require a high school diploma for entry are projected to grow more slowly than average, causing a further employment shift away from these occupations and toward occupations that typically require postsecondary education.

Why Trump Won’t Keep His Promise to Create Jobs

Source: Matthew A. Winkler, Bloomberg View, August 29, 2017

President Donald Trump has been in office just seven months, but it’s not too soon to make this prediction: He’ll break his promise to create 25 million new jobs.

That’s because Trump inherited the strongest labor market in modern times, with record openings exceeding the supply of applicants. Today, corporate America is struggling to find the help it wants….