Source: Thomas Aaron, Timothy Blake, Moody’s, Sector In-Depth, April 11, 2019
Pensions and retiree healthcare pose a credit risk for some of the largest mass transit enterprises. Transit enterprises with material unfunded liabilities face budget challenges that can limit capital reinvestment, contribute to rising debt loads and/or lead to lower service levels.
Source: J. Adam Cobb, ILR Review, Volume: 72 issue: 3, May 2019
From the abstract:
Whereas research on corporate governance typically attends to the conflicting interests between shareholders and executives, in practice executives must frequently adjudicate the demands of multiple stakeholders. To investigate how executives cope with the divergent interests of workers and shareholders, the author examines how much firms claim they will earn on the assets in their defined benefit (DB) pension plans. In a DB arrangement, employees forgo wages in the present in order to receive postretirement income, and they rely on executives to properly fund and manage plan assets. Executives, however, can increase the amount they expect the firm to earn on plan assets, which increases firm earnings in the current period but may undermine workers’ retirement security if expectations do not match actual returns over time. The author shows that the influence and interests of employees and shareholders as well as the decision-making schemas of the CEO affect whether executives exercise this discretion.
Source: Olivia S. Mitchell and Elizabeth Kennedy, Knowledge@Wharton, April 2, 2019
The U.S. Treasury department’s move last month to allow private companies to pay lump-sum pension payments to retirees and beneficiaries, instead of monthly payments, is good news for companies that do not want to be saddled with long-term pension obligations – particularly for private sector employers who have underfunded pension plans.
However, lump-sum pension payments may not work out well for retirees who opt for them. While a debate has ensued on the merits and risks of lump-sum pension payments for employees, there are also wider concerns about the long-term impacts on the entire economy when retirees do not have sufficient financial resources to support themselves. Those concerns are assuming a new importance because of the rapid growth of the so-called gig economy with temporary workers and freelancers who don’t enjoy employer-sponsored retirement benefits.
The Treasury department’s latest move reverses an Obama-era pledge to bar employers from offering lump-sum payments. The fear was that those receiving a lump-sum payment might be shortchanged and also might be tempted to spend the money sooner. Around 26.2 million Americans receive pensions right now, though that number has been declining as businesses favor 401(k) plans instead…..
Source: S&P Global Ratings, March 11, 2019
Other postemployment benefit (OPEB) underfunding of obligations is pervasive across U.S. state and local governments, and costs are likely to continue to rise rapidly. Although, compared with pensions, these obligations may have some more flexibility in how they’re provided, we recognize that funded levels are almost universally lower than those of pensions and could quickly become a challenge to budgets if not addressed. With the implementation of Governmental Accounting Standards Board (GASB) Statements Nos. 74 and 75, many governments are seeing large new OPEB liabilities on their balance sheets that are growing due to insufficient contributions (see “Credit FAQ: New GASB Statements 74 And 75 Provide Transparency For Assessing Budgetary Stress On U.S. State & Local Government OPEBs,” published March 14, 2018, on RatingsDirect). In response, governments are looking to OPEB obligation bonds (OOBs) as a way to address funding concerns. Depending on the circumstances surrounding the OOB, issuance could have rating implications.
Source: S&P Global Ratings, February 19, 2019
(Editor’s note: This publication marks the start of a series of short comments on credit matters of interest in the municipal retirement space. This first “Pension Brief” follows up on our publication one year ago surveying pension reform initiatives across the states (“Recent U.S. State Pension Reform: Balancing Long-Term Strategy And Budget Reality,” Feb. 9, 2018). ….)
…. To face persistent and growing pension challenges, some U.S. state and local governments have looked to develop creative solutions to help mitigate expanding liabilities and bolster wanting asset levels. ….
Source: S&P Global Ratings, February 22, 2019
S&P Global Ratings believes that Illinois’ (BBB-/Stable) executive budget proposal precariously balances the current budget, but punts measures to address fiscal progress to future years. It prioritizes service solvency at the expense of lower pension contributions and does not make meaningful progress toward tackling the $7.9 billion bill backlog or projected out-year deficits….
Source: Thomas Aaron, Timothy Blake, Moody’s, Sector In-Depth, February 20, 2019
Equity market losses in late 2018 will translate into larger than expected pension cost hikes in 2021 for many governments because of equity-heavy investment allocations within their pension systems’ assets. Despite the long-term investment focus of US public pension systems and favorable returns in the past two fiscal years, recent market losses highlight the uphill credit challenge facing governments that rely on high-return/high-risk pension assets to cover a large portion of their pension benefit promises.
Source: Benjamin J VanMetre, Grayson Nichols, Thomas Aaron, Rachel Cortez, Alexandra S. Parker, Moody’s, Sector In-Depth, February 5, 2019
Fixed costs — the combination of debt service, pension contributions and retiree healthcare— continue to rise for many US state and local governments. While retiree benefits (pensions and healthcare) will continue to drive this trend, the growth level is heavily dependent on unpredictable factors such as pension investment performance and workforce demographics. Debt service costs, on the other hand, are largely stable and unlikely to increase materially,continuing the trend of the last decade. Still, total fixed costs create budgetary challenges for some governments, potentially affecting their ability to deliver core services, a dynamic also known as “crowd-out” risk…..
Source: Invesco, 2019
From the executive summary:
Despite the great strides plan sponsors have made over the past 30 years in providing participants with in-depth education, guidance and tools, many are still challenged in their ability to engage, inform and motivate employees to save for retirement. Participant communications continues to be named a top-three “area of focus” in 2018,1 as plan sponsors of all sizes continually seek to refine their existing programs.
Based on more than 10 years of in-depth research, focused on the language used when communicating with investors, we believe a disconnect remains between what plan sponsors say and what participants hear. To that end, our 2018 ReDefined Contribution Plans defined contribution (DC) language study focused exclusively on the language of DC plans, specifically testing how participants reacted to various language as it related to their understanding of, and interest in, key aspects of DC plan design and investments.
Together with Maslansky + Partners, we conducted a national survey of more than 800 large-plan participants of various genders, income levels and ages (broken out by millennials, Generation X, and boomers).
We then reviewed our key findings within the construct of our four key principles of credible communication, designed to help plan sponsors communicate more effectively and build trust with participants.
Source: U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO), GAO-19-218R: Published: Jan 28, 2019. Publicly Released: Jan 28, 2019.
From the summary:
Cost-of-living adjustments can help ensure that federal benefits keep pace with inflation. Using a consumer price index to adjust benefits can help ensure that recipients have enough purchasing power to get what they need.
Social Security and other federal retirement programs generally use one of the four consumer price indexes maintained by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
We looked at what switching indexes would mean for people’s benefits and federal spending. For example, people who retire earlier or have lower incomes would feel the largest effects of any change.