Author Archives: afscme

Projections of Education Statistics to 2021

Source: William J Hussar, Tabitha M. Bailey, National Center for Education Statistics, NCES 2013008, January 2013

From the abstract:
This publication provides projections for key education statistics. It includes statistics on enrollment, graduates, teachers, and expenditures in elementary and secondary schools, and enrollment and earned degrees conferred expenditures of degree-granting institutions. For the Nation, the tables, figures, and text contain data on enrollment, teachers, graduates, and expenditures for the past 14 years and projections to the year 2021. For the 50 States and the District of Columbia, the tables, figures, and text contain data on projections of public elementary and secondary enrollment and public high school graduates to the year 2021. In addition, the report includes a methodology section describing models and assumptions used to develop national and state-level projections.

Home Video Surveillance Without a Warrant? EFF Asks Appeals Court to Reconsider

Source: Hanni Fakhoury, February 6, 2013

The next time you allow a guest into your home for dinner, should you be worried they’re secretly video recording every detail of your home for the government? In a new amicus brief filed in the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals, we’ve asked the court to reconsider a decision finding that allowing someone into your home means you’re also placing yourself at the risk of warrantless home video surveillance.

A Bleak Outlook for Higher Education in the Northeast

Source: Jason E. Lane, Nelson A. Rockefeller Institute of Government, Observations, February 2013

A series of recent reports suggest a bleak outlook for higher education. Moody’s had downgraded its outlook for the entire higher education sector to negative. Other recent reports show declining state appropriations, erratic returns generated by university endowments, and that the Northeast will be losing significant numbers of high school students in the coming decades.

In this new observation piece, Jason Lane, Rockefeller Institute’s director of education studies, examines the data and argues that this new environment might lead to more closures and consolidations of institutions in the Northeast if they are not prepared to adapt to this new environment.
Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates
Source: Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, Print publication number: 2A366, December 2012

Announcement: Moody’s: 2013 outlook for entire US Higher Education sector changed to negative
Source: Moody’s Investors Service, Global Credit Research, January 16, 2013

In a Volatile Economy, Colleges’ Endowment Returns Fall Flat
Source: Don Troop, Chronicle of Higher Education, February 1, 2013

The Hidden Cost Of Offshore Tax Havens: State Budgets Under Pressure From Tax Loophole Abuse

Source: Jordan Schneider and Elizabeth Ridlington, Phineas Baxandall and Dan Smith, U.S. Pirg Education Fund, January 2013 
From the summary:
When U.S. corporations and wealthy individuals use offshore tax havens to avoid paying taxes to the federal government, it is an abuse of our tax system. Tax haven abusers benefit from our markets, infrastructure, educated workforce, and security, but they pay next to nothing for these benefits. Ultimately, taxpayers must pick up the tab, either in the form of higher taxes, cuts to public spending priorities, or increased national debt.

Tax havens are countries or jurisdictions with minimal or no taxes. Corporations and individuals shift earnings to financial institutions in these countries to reduce their U.S. income tax liability – costing the federal government $150 billion in lost revenues each year….

In 2011, states lost approximately $39.8 billion in tax revenues from corporations and wealthy individuals who sheltered money in foreign tax havens. Multinational corporations account for more than $26 billion of the lost tax revenue, and wealthy individuals account for the rest….
See also:
Press Release

What are the Retirement Prospects of Middle-Class Americans?

Source: Barbara A. Butricia, Mikki D. Waid, AARP Public Policy Institute, January 2013

From the abstract:
Using The Urban Institute’s Dynamic Simulation of Income Model, Barbara Butrica and Mikki Waid project that workers today are less likely than their parents or grandparents to enjoy the living standards of their working years when they retire. Much of the projected decline is expected because health care costs are rising faster than wages. That is a central finding from this report from the Urban Institute and AARP’s Public Policy Institute, based on computer modeling of retirement prospects for middle-class workers under age 55 in 2012.
See also:

Library return on investment: Defending the contingent valuation method for public benefits estimation

Source: Christopher R. McIntosh, Library & Information Science Research, Available online 29 January 2013
(subscription required)

► “Cost savings” approaches fail logically in benefits estimation.
► A learning design contingent valuation method (CVM) is more appropriate.
► The CVM likely leads to more conservative and consistent estimates.
► Evidence is provided to limit the usual concerns of the used methodology.
► Options to increase societal benefits from library services are discussed.

Measures of Retirement Benefit Adequacy: Which, Why, for Whom, and How Much?

Source: Vickie Bajtelsmit, Anna Rappaport, LeAndra Foster, Society of Actuaries, January 2013

From the summary:
The purpose of this study is to provide the basis for estimation of retirement income needs and adequacy. To that end, the researchers have developed a Monte Carlo simulation model of retirement cash flows incorporating a wide variety of risks and uncertainties faced by retirees, including longevity, inflation, investment, health, and long-term care. By varying assumptions, they compare outcomes based on decisions such as expense reduction, mortgage payoff, purchase of annuities and long-term care insurance, delayed and early retirement. They describe and justify the base case assumptions, explain the metrics used for reporting the simulation output, and summarize the alternative scenarios that are simulated. They also provide call -out boxes highlighting practical issues and key findings as well as a list of references that can be a handy source of resources on this topic.

The study describes three different approaches to measuring benefit adequacy from each stakeholder’s point of view as well as their limitations:
• Replacement Ratio – this is most often used by employers in not only designing their plans but also in comparing their plans to those of other employers. The study includes a discussion of the Aon /Georgia State Study, which is widely used and recognized in the U.S.
• Minimum Needs Measure – this is generally used by policymakers. The study uses the Elder Economic Security Index to outline national averages for various household types.
• Cash Flow Analysis – a detailed, personalized cash flow forecast is the best way for individuals to prepare for and manage their retirement needs.

Education Ranking Systems Are Based on Varying Measures of Success

Source: Laura Bornfreund, New America Foundation, Early Ed Watch blog, January 28, 2013

Three organizations recently released new education rankings of states. Education Week’s Quality Counts is a comprehensive analysis of states’ education policies and student outcomes, conducted by the Editorial Projects in Education Research Center. New this year is a ranking report from StudentsFirst, under the leadership of former DC schools chancellor Michelle Rhee, which looks at how “reform-minded” states are, as defined by policies such as expanding the charter school sector and tying teacher and principal evaluation to student performance. The National Council on Teacher Quality’s State Teacher Policy Yearbook hones in on teacher preparation systems. An older, fourth report – the Foundation for Child Development’s Child Well-Being Index – puts all three new rankings in perspective, by taking a deep dive into a variety of factors that affect student learning, both within and outside of the classroom. …

Public Transportation and Its Impact in Indiana

Source: Ball State University, Center for Business and Economic Research, Janury 2013

Produced for the Indiana Transportation Association, this trio of studies examines options for public transit, methods of funding, and the impact of fixed-route bus transit in Indiana.
Article include:
Public Transportation in Indiana: An Analysis of Ridership Surveys by Dagney Faulk, Michael Hicks, Kevin Kroll
The Effect of Gasoline Prices on Public Bus Ridership in Indiana by Michael Hicks, Dagney Faulk
Fixed Route and Demand-Response Systems: Funding Methods, Benefits, and Costs in Indiana by Michael J. Hicks, Dagney Faulk, and Kevin Kroll