Author Archives: afscme

Political Economy of the Parcel Tax in California School Districts

Source: Soomi Lee, Public Finance Review, OnlineFirst, Published July 16, 2019
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From the abstract:
This article examines the effect of home price distribution on the likelihood of parcel tax adoption in California school districts. A parcel tax is a regressive tax imposed as the same amount per unit of property regardless of property values and requires a two-thirds supermajority vote to be adopted. Despite the growing role that local parcel taxes have in funding public education, it has not been fully understood how their regressive nature influences adoption. I argue that because the regressive tax imposes different marginal property tax rates for voters, the distribution of home prices within a district determines the likelihood of parcel tax adoption. Using the Heckman selection models with California school district–level data, I find that a large gap in home values within a district significantly lowers the likelihood of parcel tax adoption.

Household Debt and Children’s Risk of Food Insecurity

Source: Mackenzie Brewer, Social Problems, Advance Articles, August 8, 2019
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From the abstract:
In the United States, almost one in six households with children cannot access adequate food for a healthy and active lifestyle. Although food insecurity disproportionately affects lower-income households, it remains unclear why some lower-income families are more vulnerable to food insecurity than others. Household unsecured debt, such as debt incurred from credit cards and medical bills, may be an unexplored financial constraint associated with food insecurity. Using data from the 2014 Child Development Supplement (CDS) of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID), I assess whether unsecured debt, by amount and type of debt, is associated with food insecurity among lower-income households with children (N=1,319). Results indicate that medical debt increases odds of household food insecurity even after accounting for key sociodemographic and economic risk factors, while no relationship exists between other forms of unsecured debt and food insecurity. Moreover, although liquid assets decrease the risk of household food insecurity and attenuate the harmful effects associated with unpaid medical bills, few households have enough liquid assets to mitigate the risks associated with medical debt. Efforts to prevent medical debt may be essential for eliminating food insecurity among lower-income households with children.

U.S. Investment Since the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017

Source: Emanuel Kopp, Daniel Leigh, Susanna Mursula, Suchanan Tambunlertchai, International Monetary Fund (IMF), IMF Working Paper No. 19/120, May 2019

From the abstract:
There is no consensus on how strongly the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) has stimulated U.S. private fixed investment. Some argue that the business tax provisions spurred investment by cutting the cost of capital. Others see the TCJA primarily as a windfall for shareholders. We find that U.S. business investment since 2017 has grown strongly compared to pre-TCJA forecasts and that the overriding factor driving it has been the strength of expected aggregate demand. Investment has, so far, fallen short of predictions based on the postwar relation with tax cuts. Model simulations and firm-level data suggest that much of this weaker response reflects a lower sensitivity of investment to tax policy changes in the current environment of greater corporate market power. Economic policy uncertainty in 2018 played a relatively small role in dampening investment growth.

Fiscal Consolidation and Public Wages

Source: Juin-jen Chang, Hsieh-Yu Lin, Nora Traum, Shu-Chun Susan Yang, International Monetary Fund (IMF), IMF Working Paper No. 19/125, June 2019

From the abstract:
A New Keynesian model with government production, public compensation, and unemployment is fit to U.S. data to study the macroeconomic and fiscal effects of public wage reductions. We find that accounting for the type of government spending is crucial for its macroeconomic implications. Although reductions in public wages and government purchases of goods have similar effects on total output and the fiscal balance, the former can raise private output slightly, in contrast to the substantial contractionary effects of the latter.In addition, the baseline estimation finds that exogenous public wage reductions decrease private wages. Model counterfactuals show that sufficiently rigid nominal private wages can reverse the response of private wages, as the rigidity dampens the labor reallocation effect from the public to private sector that exerts downward pressure on private wages.

Public Wealth in the United States

Source: Fabien Gonguet, Klaus-Peter Hellwig, International Monetary Fund (IMF), IMF Working Paper No. 19/139, July 2019

From the abstract:
We analyze the US public sector balance sheet and project it forward under the assumption that current policies remain in place. We first document the history of the balance sheet and its components since World War II, with a detailed account of its evolution during and after the global financial crisis. While, based on assets and liabilities alone, public sector net worth is negative, additional challenges arise from commitments to future spending implied by current legislation and demographic trends. To quantify the risks to the balance sheet, we then apply the macroeconomic scenarios from the Federal Reserve’s bank stress test to the public sector balance sheet.

The Anti-Public Administration Presidency: The Damage Trump Has Wrought

Source: Charles T. Goodsell, The American Review of Public Administration, OnlineFirst, July 25, 2019
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From the abstract:
President Trump and his Administration have gravely damaged the institutions and values of American public administration. Harm has been done to the federal workforce, the policymaking process, the integrity of missions, agencies and programs, and the government’s relation to science.

Decline in the rate of occupational injuries and illnesses following the implementation of a paid sick leave law in Connecticut

Source: Devan Hawkins, Junli Zhu, American Journal of Industrial Medicine, Early View, July 22, 2019
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From the abstract:

Background:
Workers with paid sick leave may have a lower rate of occupational injuries compared with other workers. This study sought to determine whether there was a decline in the rate of occupational injuries and illnesses following the implementation of a paid sick leave law in Connecticut (CT).

Methods:
Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics was used to calculate the rate of occupational injuries and illnesses in CT in the 3 years before (2009‐11) and after (2012‐14) the law was implemented. These numbers were compared with New York (NY) and the United States, and between the occupations specified by the CT law and other occupations.

Results:
Among service occupations addressed by the CT paid‐sick‐leave law, the rate of occupational injuries declined more in CT compared to rates for those same occupations in NY and the United States. Within CT, injury and illness rates showed a greater decline in occupations specified by the law (−17.8%; 95% confidence interval [CI] = −15.6‐−19.9) compared with other occupations (−6.8%; 95% CI = −6.6%‐−7.0%) between the two periods.

Conclusions:
A paid sick leave law was associated with an increased decline in occupational injuries and illnesses in affected service workers in the period after implementation. Further research should examine the possible reasons for the associations seen here.

Associations between daily‐on‐the job hassles with perceived mental exertion and depression symptoms in taxi drivers

Source: Barbara J. Burgel, Rami A. Elshatarat, American Journal of Industrial Medicine, Early View, July 22, 2019
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From the abstract:

Introduction:
Taxi drivers experience frequent hassles that may contribute to mental exertion and depression symptoms.

Aim:
Mental exertion and depression symptoms in taxi drivers are explored in association with hassles, effort‐reward imbalance, job strain, and iso‐strain.

Methods:
Personal interviews were conducted with 130 drivers in San Francisco.

Results:
Mental exertion averaged 4.5 (±2.68) and physical exertion averaged 3.71 (±2.1) on 0 to 10 Borg scales. Based on the Center for Epidemiological Studies‐Depression scale, 38% had depression symptoms. Mental exertion and depression symptoms correlated with job strain, iso‐strain and effort‐reward imbalance in anticipated directions, lending construct validity to the Borg mental exertion scale. Physical exertion, night shift, stressful personal events, and being uninsured for healthcare predicted mental exertion. Lack of respect by dispatchers and stressful personal events predicted depression symptoms.

Conclusion:
Selected hassles may be remedied by communication trainings, emphasizing mutual respect. Recognition and treatment of depression in taxi drivers are important.

Opioid‐related overdose deaths by industry and occupation—Massachusetts, 2011‐2015

Source: Devan Hawkins, Cora Roelofs, James Laing, Letitia Davis, American Journal of Industrial Medicine, Early View, July 26, 2019
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From the abstract:

Background:
Thousands of people in the United States continue to die from opioid overdoses every year. Work‐related injuries and other factors associated with work may increase exposure to opioids and, subsequently, opioid‐related overdose deaths (OROD). This study sought to determine whether OROD rates differed by industry and occupation and explored work‐related factors that might contribute to these differences.

Methods:
We coded industry and occupation information on death certificates for all OROD among Massachusetts residents from 2011 to 2015. We estimated rates of OROD by industry and occupation using Massachusetts employment data. National survey data were used to explore whether work‐related factors known to vary by occupation (occupational injury and illness, job insecurity, and paid sick leave) correlate to observed differences in OROD.

Results:
Several industries and occupation groups had rates of OROD that were significantly higher than the rates for other workers. Construction workers and fishing workers stood out for having OROD rates many times higher than the average for all workers. Occupation groups with high rates of occupational injuries and illnesses, high job insecurity, and low availability of paid sick leave had higher rates of OROD.

Conclusions:
These findings underscore the need for policy and educational interventions to reduce OROD tailored to the needs of high rate worker populations. Interventions should address workplace hazards that cause injuries for which opioids are prescribed, as well as best practices in medical management and return to work following injury, safer prescribing, enhanced access to treatment for opioid use disorders, and overdose prevention education.

Do Small Local Governments Fare Well? A Survey of Villages in New York

Source: Pengju Zhang, Marc Holzer, The American Review of Public Administration, OnlineFirst, July 25, 2019
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From the abstract:
Public administration studies have not adequately discussed governance challenges for small local governments. Given that more than 10% of villages have, unprecedentedly, voted on dissolution in New York over the past 10 years, this article exclusively and comprehensively investigates how well villages are faring in New York. Using a representative survey of village governments, coupled with a rich secondary data set, it finds institutional and political tensions between villages and their underlying town(s). It also suggests intergovernmental fiscal factors have threatened the organizational and fiscal health of some village governments. In addition, villages have extensively established service-sharing mechanisms with town(s) to mitigate fiscal stress. The majority of village officials remain skeptical about dissolution as an effective approach to cost savings.