How Would a Permanently Refundable Child and Dependent Care Credit Affect Eligibility, Benefits, and Incentives?

Source: Gabrielle Pepin, Public Finance Review, Volume 50 Issue 1, January 2022
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From the introduction:
The federal Child and Dependent Care Credit (CDCC) subsidizes child care costs for working families. Before 2021, the CDCC was nonrefundable, so only families with positive tax liability after other deductions benefited. I estimate how CDCC eligibility, benefits, and marginal tax rates would change if the credit were made permanently refundable. Under refundability, some 5 percent of single parents gain eligibility and receive on average over $1,000 annually. Eligibility increases are largest among Black and Hispanic households. Increases in marginal tax rates among moderate-income taxpayers are small.