Undercounting Hispanics in the 2020 Census will result in a loss in federal funding to many states for child and family assistance programs

Source: David Murphey, Dana Thomson, Lina Guzman, Claire Kelley, Child Trends, Issue Brief, August 14, 2019

This brief examines the potential reduction in funding to states for five critical federal programs that could result from an undercount of Hispanics in the 2020 Census. More than 300 federal programs allocate funding based on Census-derived data. The five programs we examine serve children and families and account for almost half of all federal funding to states. Hispanics are the largest racial or ethnic minority group in the United States and are especially at risk for being undercounted a problem which research indicates may be exacerbated by ongoing concerns about efforts to link citizenship status to Census respondents. ….

….. The interactive maps and tables below illustrate low, medium, and high estimates of potential losses of federal funding to states for five programs: the Medical Assistance Program (Medicaid, children only), the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP), Title IV-E Foster Care, Title IV-E Adoption Assistance, and the Child Care and Development Block Grant (CCDBG). The low-estimate scenario is based on published research by the Urban Institute, and assumes a Census count that proceeds as planned by the U.S. Census Bureau. The medium and high estimates (based on research published by the Census Bureau and Harvard University researchers, respectively) assume that participation will be reduced due to data-privacy and other concerns resulting from federal efforts to determine the citizenship status of Census respondents. …..

…. Under existing federal funding formulas, a total of 37 states will forfeit a portion of federal funds for the five aforementioned child and family programs as a result of a Hispanic undercount in the 2020 Census. ….