Fiscal Survey of the States – Spring 2019

Source: National Association of State Budget Officers, June 2019

From the overview:
With data gathered from all 50 state budget offices, this semi-annual report provides a narrative analysis of the fiscal condition of the states and data summaries of state general fund revenues, expenditures, and balances. The spring edition details governors’ proposed budgets; the fall edition details enacted budgets.

Governors’ recommended budgets for fiscal 2020 reflect stable state fiscal conditions, calling for investments in key priorities while saving for future challenges. Proposed spending plans would increase general fund expenditures by 3.7 percent in fiscal 2020, with 47 states proposing spending increases and governors directing the majority of new money to education.
Other key findings from the report:
– Governors proposed appropriation increases totaling $30.8 billion in fiscal 2020, including $14.1 billion in new money for K-12 education and $3.6 billion for higher education.
– States estimate general fund spending grew 5.8 percent in fiscal 2019, the fastest annual growth rate since fiscal 2007.
– No states made mid-year budget cuts in fiscal 2019 due to a revenue shortfall, and only 3 states made small mid-year reductions for other reasons.
– 28 states reported fiscal 2019 general fund revenue collections exceeding projections, with this number expected to grow after accounting for April receipts.
– Governors’ budgets are based on forecasted general fund revenue growth of 4.0 percent in fiscal 2020.
– Governors proposed a series of revenue actions consisting mostly of tax increases, including a number of proposals directed towards transportation, with a net revenue impact of $8.1 billion in fiscal 2020.
– The median rainy day fund balance as a share of general fund spending reached 7.5 percent in fiscal 2019, a new all-time high.
– Medicaid spending from all funds is expected to grow 4.0 percent in fiscal 2020, with state funds increasing 3.1 percent and federal funds growing 4.5 percent.