Migration driven by jobs and demographic trends more than SALT deduction cap

Source: Marcia Van Wagner, Timothy Blake, Nicholas Samuels, Emily Raimes, Moody’s, Sector In-Depth, April 8, 2019
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Domestic migration patterns offer no discernible signs yet that the federal cap on state and local tax (SALT) deductions is causing residents to flee high-tax states, resulting in population loss (a social risk) and hurting states’ credit quality. Migration from high-tax states is lower than a decade ago and generally following the US as a whole, while many people are moving from one high-tax state to another. The impact of the SALT cap enacted in 2017 will be felt widely for the first time this tax season and possibly spur some out-migration, but jobs and demographic trends will continue to influence relocation patterns more than tax burdens….