State and local government — US: Market volatility underscores risk of high pension investment return targets

Source: Thomas Aaron, Timothy Blake, Moody’s, Sector In-Depth, February 20, 2019
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Equity market losses in late 2018 will translate into larger than expected pension cost hikes in 2021 for many governments because of equity-heavy investment allocations within their pension systems’ assets. Despite the long-term investment focus of US public pension systems and favorable returns in the past two fiscal years, recent market losses highlight the uphill credit challenge facing governments that rely on high-return/high-risk pension assets to cover a large portion of their pension benefit promises.