Federal Share of State Revenue Rises as Medicaid Grants Expand

Source: Phillip Oliff, Justin Theal, and Brakeyshia Samms, The Pew Charitable Trusts, States’ Fiscal Health, July 25, 2017

The share of states’ revenue made up by federal dollars rose in fiscal year 2015, capturing the first full year of expanded Medicaid eligibility in some states. The federal government provided 31.9 percent of 50-state revenue in fiscal 2015—the third-largest share on record—up from 30.7 percent in fiscal 2014.
For a second consecutive year, federal dollars as a share of state revenue increased in a majority of states—29 in fiscal 2015. Health care grants have been the main driver of increases in federal funding to states in recent years.

Federal grants to states rose 10.2 percent in fiscal 2015, outpacing overall revenue growth of 6.3 percent. The $55 billion increase in federal funds boosted the share of state revenue coming from the U.S. government to its third-highest level since at least 1961. The federal share of state revenue, however, was still lower than just after the Great Recession, when an influx of economic stimulus dollars and falling state tax revenue increased the federal share to 35.5 percent in fiscal 2010 and 34.7 percent in fiscal 2011. Declines in the federal share after fiscal 2010 reflected the phasing out of stimulus funds and the recovery of states’ tax collections. Changes in either revenue source affect the ratio of federal to total dollars.