Fiscal Survey of the States – Spring 2017

Source: National Association of State Budget Officers, June 2017

From the overview:
With data gathered from all 50 state budget offices, this semi-annual report provides a narrative analysis of the fiscal condition of the states and data summaries of state general fund revenues, expenditures, and balances. The spring edition details governors’ proposed budgets; the fall edition details enacted budgets.

Governors’ budgets for fiscal 2018 are extra cautious as states contend with slow revenue growth, limited budget flexibility and substantial federal uncertainty.

Key findings from the report include:
– State general fund spending would increase just 1.0 percent compared to current estimated spending levels under governors’ fiscal 2018 budgets.
– States experienced sluggish general fund revenue growth in fiscal 2017 of 2.4 percent, with 33 states reporting collections below budget projections.
– At least 23 states have already made net mid-year budget cuts totaling $4.9 billion in fiscal 2017.
– General fund revenues are projected to grow 3.1 percent in fiscal 2018 based on governors’ budgets.
– States continue to strengthen their reserves, despite slow revenue growth.
– General fund spending on Medicaid grew at an estimated median rate of 5.2 percent in fiscal 2017, with a median growth rate of 4.3 percent projected for fiscal 2018.
– States that expanded Medicaid expect to spend $8.5 billion from state funds on expansion in fiscal 2018.
– Governors’ proposed tax and fee changes would result in a net increase of $3.7 billion.