Source: Christina Hawley Anthony, Barry Blom, Nathaniel Frentz and Joshua Shakin, Charles Whalen and Christopher Williams, Amber Marcellino, Pamela Greene, Dan Ready, Nathaniel Frentz, Claire Sleigh, Congressional Budget Office, pub. number 52370, January 2017
From the summary:
CBO projects that, under current law, the deficit in 2017 will total $559 billion (or 2.9 percent of GDP)—but over the next decade, budget deficits would eventually follow an upward trajectory, as growth in revenues would be outpaced by rising spending for retirement and health care programs that target older people and for interest on the federal debt.
Economic growth over the next 10 years is projected to remain close to its modest rate since the end of the recession in 2009. CBO expects that reduced slack in the economy will put upward pressure on inflation and interest rates. ….