Why the Democrats won’t win the House in 2018

Source: Anthony McGann, Alex Keena, Charles Anthony Smith, Michael Latner, The Conversation, November 23, 2016

The result of the presidential election may have taken some people by surprise, but the fact that Republicans retained control of the House of Representatives was completely predictable. Republicans would have retained the House almost regardless of who voters supported for president, barring an improbable landslide. As we argue in our book “Gerrymandering in America,” the Republicans will win the House again in 2018 and 2020. ….. Some skeptics argue that gerrymandering isn’t as powerful as some would suggest. Others accept that the district boundaries benefit the Republicans, but argue that this is not because of intentional gerrymandering, but because Democratic support is concentrated in urban areas.

Let’s consider the evidence for these claims. …..