A new book suggests something as random as an election-year drought or flood can decide whether the incumbent or challenger wins the election.
“Election outcomes are mostly random events shaped by things like whether the economy happened to grow in the few months before the election,” says Larry M. Bartels, chair of public policy and social science at Vanderbilt University and coauthor of Democracy for Realists: Why Elections do not Produce Responsive Governments. ….
– People often inherit their partisan loyalties from their parents, or they develop because of passion for one particular issue.
– Southerners in the 1960s and 1970s shifted from Democrat to Republican mostly out of their loyalties to being southern, not their views about civil rights.
– Voters typically like to alternate a top job such as president between the competing parties. The longer the incumbent party has held the White House, the less likely they are to win another term…..