America’s Electoral Future: How Changing Demographics Could Impact Presidential Elections from 2016 to 2032

Source: William H. Frey, Ruy Teixeira, and Robert Griffin, Center for American Progress, American Enterprise Institute, Brookings Institution, February 2016

From the press release:
Today, the Center for American Progress; the American Enterprise Institute, or AEI; and the Brookings Institution released a new report and interactive with simulations that examine how demographic shifts by race, age, and generation could affect election outcomes from 2016 to 2032. The simulations—which offer a range of outcomes that can be expected under different assumptions as the nation’s demography changes—use projections produced and presented by the States of Change project in 2015, a groundbreaking collaboration between CAP, AEI, and Brookings. ….

The analyses presented considers the following six main scenarios:
– The “2012 Forward scenario,” which assumes that the voter turnout rates and Democratic/Republican candidate preferences for each racial group in 2012 will continue for eligible voter populations that are projected into the future.
– The “2008 Forward scenario,” which assumes that the even more Democrat-favorable turnout and candidate preference for each racial group in 2008 will apply to future eligible voter populations.
– The “2004 Forward scenario,” which assumes that the relatively Republican-favorable 2004 turnout rates and candidate preferences for each racial group will apply to future eligible voter populations.
– The “Maximum Minority Turnout scenario,” which assumes that the turnout of Hispanics, Asians, and other races by age rises to the turnout level of whites by age in every state. This simulation shows the likely outcomes that would result if efforts to encourage the turnout of newer minorities—Hispanics, Asians, and other nonblack minorities—are extremely successful.
– The “High GOP Hispanic/Asian Support scenario,” which assumes that Republican support from voters of each nonblack or new minority group—Hispanics, Asians, and those of other races—will increase by 7.5 percentage points for those groups in every state.
– The “More GOP White Support scenario,” which changes the voting preferences of the white electorate, adjusting scenario A in order to increase the level of Republican support from white voters of all age categories in every state by 5 points—thereby raising the GOP margin among white voters by 10 points.

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Summary