Ready to Bargain: The Effect of Fiscal Stress on Supermajority Requirements to Raise Taxes

Source: Ellen Seljan, Public Budgeting & Finance, Vol. 35 Issue 3, Fall 2015
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From the abstract:
This paper analyzes the interaction effect between fiscal stress and supermajority requirements to raise taxes. I hypothesize that fiscal stress nullifies the effects of supermajority requirements, making states with and without supermajority requirements equally likely to raise taxes during these periods. This conclusion was drawn from a theory on how fiscal stress affects the legislative bargaining environment. The hypothesis was tested using data from 49 states from 1980 to 2010, and the results confirmed expectations. This research contributes to a growing literature that suggests that the effect of institutions cannot be analyzed without considering the context of the political environmen