National Health Expenditure Projections, 2014–24: Spending Growth Faster Than Recent Trends

Source: Sean P. Keehan, Gigi A. Cuckler, Andrea M. Sisko, Andrew J. Madison, Sheila D. Smith, Devin A. Stone, John A. Poisal, Christian J. Wolfe and Joseph M. Lizonitz, Health Affairs, Published online before print July 28, 2015
(subscription required)

From the abstract:
Health spending growth in the United States is projected to average 5.8 percent for 2014–24, reflecting the Affordable Care Act’s coverage expansions, faster economic growth, and population aging. Recent historically low growth rates in the use of medical goods and services, as well as medical prices, are expected to gradually increase. However, in part because of the impact of continued cost-sharing increases that are anticipated among health plans, the acceleration of these growth rates is expected to be modest. The health share of US gross domestic product is projected to rise from 17.4 percent in 2013 to 19.6 percent in 2024.
National Health Expenditure Data – Projected

The Office of the Actuary in the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services annually produces projections of health care spending for categories within the National Health Expenditure Accounts, which track health spending by source of funds (for example, private health insurance, Medicare, Medicaid), by type of service (hospital, physician, prescription drugs, etc.), and by sponsor (businesses, households, governments). The latest projections begin after the latest historical year (2013) and go through 2024.

NHE Projections 2014-2024 – Forecast Summary [PDF, 214KB]
NHE Projections 2014-2024 – Tables [ZIP, 170KB]
NHE Historical and Projections 1960-2024 [ZIP, 80KB]
Projections Methodology [PDF, 499KB]
Accuracy analysis of the short-term (11-year) national health expenditure projections [PDF, 146KB]