What we know and don’t know about declining labor force participation: A review

Source: Eleanor Krause and Isabel V. Sawhill, Brookings Institution, May 2017

From the summary:

For decades, the portion of prime-age men (ages 25 to 54) in the labor force has been in decline. More recently, the labor force participation rate of prime-age women has stagnated and also declined. This paper addresses the consequences of, and reasons for, these declines, especially among men. A subsequent effort will address appropriate policy responses.

Women’s increasing workforce participation through the late 1990s largely masked the precipitous decline in male participation rates. Men’s rates have fallen about 8 percentage points over the past 60 years. On both fronts, the U.S. is also falling behind other advanced economies. U.S. prime-age female participation fell from 6th to 17th of 22 OECD member countries between 1990 and 2010. Over the same period, the decline in the prime-age male participation rate was the second most severe of the OECD countries, and is now the third lowest among the 34 member countries. The U.S. trends are particularly pronounced for non-Hispanic black men and less-skilled adults. There is now an 11 percentage point gap in participation rates between men with a college degree and those with a high school degree or less—whereas 50 years ago, the two rates were very similar.

Explanations for these trends tend to focus either on the demand for workers or the supply of labor. Trade and technology have reduced the demand for certain types of work, particularly less-skilled labor in fields like manufacturing. Of the two, most economists believe that automation has played the larger role. Manufacturing’s share of GDP has remained relatively stable but, thanks in part to productivity improvements, the sector now employs only two-thirds as many people as it did 30 years ago. Technological change has widened the wage gap between skill levels. While a man with a high school degree earned about three-quarters of the wages of his college-educated counterpart in 1980, he now earns about half as much. At the same time that technology has made certain jobs obsolete, new jobs are being created in other areas (both high-wage managerial and technical jobs and low-wage service sector jobs), but these new jobs often require different skills or pay lower wages…..

Budget of the U.S. Government – Fiscal Year 2018

Source: Office of Management and Budget, May 2017

A New Foundation for American Greatness – President’s Budget FY 2018

Major Savings and Reforms

America First – A Budget Blueprint to Make America Great Again

Analytical Perspectives
Appendix
Historical Tables
Supplemental Materials
Fact Sheets
Supplementals, Amendments, and Releases
Past President’s Budgets

Related:
Greenstein: Trump Budget Proposes Path to a New Gilded Age
Source: Robert Greenstein, Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, CBPP Statement, May 22, 2017

President Trump’s new budget should lay to rest any belief that he’s looking out for the millions of people the economy has left behind.

President Trump’s Budget Includes a $2 Trillion Math Mistake
Source: Ryan Teague Beckwith, Time, May 23, 2017

President Trump’s budget includes simple accounting error that adds up to a $2 trillion oversight.

Trump releases budget hitting his own voters hardest
Source: Andrew Restuccia , Matthew Nussbaum and Sarah Ferris, Politico, Updated: May 23, 2017

The president’s proposal for next year’s federal spending calls for more than $1 trillion in cuts to social programs, including farm aid.

What Trump’s budget cuts from the social safety net
Source: Denise Lu and Kim Soffen, Washington Post, Updated May 23, 2017

On Tuesday, President Trump released his 2018 budget proposal. It makes deep cuts across many anti-poverty programs, slashing food stamps by more than a quarter and children’s health insurance by 19 percent.

Trump budget slashes money for federal lands, needy and health care
Source: Thomas Burr, The Salt Lake Tribune, May 23 2017

President Donald Trump’s proposed 2018 fiscal budget would hit Utah’s needy and disabled, cut block grants to communities, slash funding for public lands and public transit projects and could hurt rural airport services.

How the Trump Budget Undermines Economic Security for Working Families
Source: Rebecca Vallas, Harry Stein, Eliza Schultz, Neil Campbell, Kate Bahn, Regina Willensky, Kevin DeGood, Antoinette Flores, Ethan Gurwitz, Alexandra Thornton, and Angela Hanks, Center for American Progress, May 23, 2017

With an administration chock full of self-serving millionaires and billionaires, it comes as little surprise that President Donald Trump’s proposed budget would be an enormous windfall for the wealthiest Americans. But the degree to which it privileges the 1 percent at the expense of nearly everyone else—breaking Trump’s campaign promises to restore prosperity to everyday Americans—is staggering. Notably, by calling for cuts to Social Security, the budget violates one of Trump’s most significant promises.

Indeed, his proposed repeal of the estate tax alone—a tax that only affects the wealthiest 0.2 percent of estates—would cost the same as feeding more than 6 million seniors for a year through Meals on Wheels, a program facing deep cuts under the Trump budget.

And that is just one of several massive giveaways to the wealthy that President Trump calls for in this budget proposal while slashing critical investments in education, infrastructure, jobs, and more that make it possible for workers and families to get ahead. Here are seven ways that President Trump’s budget proposal threatens to do them serious damage.

Trump’s Budget Would Hit These States the Hardest
Source: Sam Petulla, NBC News, May 23, 2017

The Trump administration unveiled a budget for 2018 on Tuesday that seeks to overhaul many of the country’s safety-net programs for low-income and struggling Americans. Though these cuts are popular among Republican lawmakers, they affect programs that are actually more commonly used in Republican-leaning states than in Democratic ones, and that in many cases benefit white voters without college degrees — a demographic group that strongly supported President Donald Trump in the 2016 election.
The programs experiencing the deepest cuts provide assistance for health care services to children, the poor and disabled, and that supplement food and housing for those with low incomes. Most of the programs were created decades ago by Democratic presidents.

Given a test to apply for a job? Watch out if you are not a white man

Source: Will Evans, Reveal, May 23, 2017

There’s a hidden form of discrimination blocking job seekers across the country.

It’s not a cabal of racist, sexist hiring managers colluding to give white men an advantage – though it can have the same effect.

It’s the misuse of employment tests – which measure reading, math and other cognitive skills – that can unfairly disadvantage minorities and women without the employers or the job applicants even realizing it…..

H.R. 1628, American Health Care Act of 2017

Source: Congressional Budget Office, Cost Estimate, May 24, 2017

From the summary:
CBO and the staff of the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) estimate that enacting the legislation—which would repeal or modify many provisions of the Affordable Care Act—would reduce federal deficits by $119 billion over the coming decade.

CBO and JCT estimate that in 2018, 14 million more people would be uninsured under the legislation than under current law. After additional changes to subsidies for insurance purchased in the nongroup market and to the Medicaid program took effect, the increase in the number of uninsured people would rise to 19 million in 2020 and then to 23 million in 2026.

Strategy Labs Postsecondary Legislative Tracking

Source: Education Commission of the States, 2017

As a partner supporting the Strategy Labs platform, Education Commission of the States tracks legislative activity across several key issue areas, providing valuable and timely information on state postsecondary legislation. This map displays postsecondary education related bills for the 2017-18 sessions.

Legislation is tracked from introduction through final action. To sort by state, click on a state on the map and the bills will display below the map. To sort by issue and sub-issue, click an issue area bar then a sub-issue bar to display the bills. Click the arrow at the right side of the bill list to see specific information related to the bill. To reset the map, use the “reset” button at the bottom of the page.

What Trump’s Proposed 2018 Budget Would Mean for Higher Ed

Source: Adam Harris, Chronicle of Higher Education blog, May 23, 2017

Updated (5/23/2017, 2:19 p.m.) with details on the budget proposals for scientific and medical research.

The Trump administration on Tuesday released its budget proposal for the 2018 fiscal year. All told, the budget would cut federal education programs by more than $10 billion. The Department of Education’s total operating budget would be slashed by $9 billion, and spending on secondary-education programs would be redirected to school-choice initiatives — the chief policy goal of Betsy DeVos, the education secretary.

President Trump’s budget would eliminate the public-service loan-forgiveness program, subsidized Stafford Loans, and Supplemental Educational Opportunity Grants; begin to phase out the National Endowments for the Arts and for the Humanities; and allow the Perkins Loan program to expire. It would also cut spending in half on Federal Work-Study programs, slash the budget of the National Institutes of Health by a fifth, eliminate programs that foster foreign-language study, and reduce spending that supports international-education programs and exchanges, such as the Fulbright Scholar program, by 55 percent….

New Trump Budget Eliminates Arts, Humanities, Library Agencies

Source: Jackie Zubrzycki, Education Week, Curriculum Matters blog, May 23, 2017

The National Endowment for the Arts, the National Endowment for the Humanities, and the Institute of Museum and Library Sciences would begin shutting down in 2018 if President Donald Trump’s 2018 budget, released today, is approved by Congress.

The $4.1 trillion budget, called “A New Foundation for American Greatness,” involves significant tax cuts, an increase in spending on the military and border security, and cuts to domestic programs like Medicaid along with the arts, humanities, and library agencies.

Trump’s initial budget proposal, released in March, involved cutting the endowments and IMLS, which support education programs around the country. Supporters breathed a sigh of relief when the endowments received extra funds through the end of 2017. ….

But Trump’s new budget again calls for the elimination of the agencies, asserting that the endowments are not “core federal activities” and that getting rid of the IMLS will likely not cause “a significant number” of libraries and museums to close.

Jim Martin Table: FY 2018 President’s Budget

Source: Federal Funds Information for States, May 2017
(subscription required)

The Jim Martin table is an homage to Jim Martin, a long-time director of federal relations at the National Governors Association and a big supporter of FFIS in its early days. He requested the table because he wanted to show changes in federal funding for major programs on one sheet of paper. We’re told he carried it wherever he went, including Washington, DC’s metro, where he was seen distributing it to anyone who was interested. Alas, Jim is gone but his eponymous table lives on.

Jim Martin Table: FY 2018 President’s Budget
May 23, 2017
The Jim Martin Table has been updated to reflect the president’s FY 2018 budget request.
Full Report

Jim Martin Table: FY 2017 Omnibus
May 2, 2017
The Jim Martin Table has been updated to reflect funding under the Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2017 (H.R. 244).

Maternal occupational physical activity and risk for orofacial clefts

Source: A. J. Agopian, Jihye Kim, Peter H. Langlois, Laura Lee, Lawrence W. Whitehead, Elaine Symanski, Michele L. Herdt, George L. Delclos, American Journal of Industrial Medicine, Early View, May 19, 2017
(subscription required)

From the abstract:
Objectives
To perform a case-control study of maternal occupational physical activity and risk for orofacial clefts in Texas during 1999-2009.

Methods
We used logistic regression to assess 14 measures of physical activity estimated from a job exposure matrix, using the maternal occupation reported on the birth certificate, among 887 children with cleft lip with or without cleft palate (CLP), 436 children with cleft palate only (CP), and 1932 controls.

Results
After adjusting for several potential confounders, seven measures of physical activity (as a categorical and/or continuous variable) were significantly associated with CLP, CP, or both. Positive associations were seen for keeping balance, kneeling, standing, and walking/running (odds ratio 95% confidence interval range 1.0-1.9 for fourth versus first quartile). A significant positive trend was also seen for bending/twisting. Negative associations were seen for repetitive motion and sitting.

Conclusions
Maternal occupational physical activity may be related to the etiology of orofacial clefts.

Psychosocial work factors and low back pain in taxi drivers

Source: Barbara J. Burgel, Rami A. Elshatarat, American Journal of Industrial Medicine, Online First, May 19, 2017
(subscription required)

From the abstract:
Introduction
Taxi drivers are at high risk for low back pain (LBP).

Aim
Identify the association between psychosocial-work factors (Job strain, Iso-strain, effort-reward imbalance [ERI], unfairness, and mental exertion) and LBP in taxi drivers.

Methods
A cross-sectional study was done with 129 taxi drivers.

Results
Approximately 63% reported LBP in the prior 12 months. Chi square or t-test analyses identified the associations between demographic, work, health, and psychosocial work factors, and self-report of LBP in the prior 12 months. Depression, perceived physical exertion, dispatcher and manager support, unfair treatment at work, and unfair treatment due to nationality were significantly associated with LBP in bivariate analyses. Multivariate logistic regression was done to identify the predictors of LBP. High dispatcher support remained the sole significant predictor for lower prevalence of LBP (OR = 0.66, P = 0.017).

Conclusion
Greater understanding of psychosocial work factors may aid in developing interventions to prevent LBP in taxi drivers.